As far as looking at the ultimate cause of obesity, I used to lean more towards insulin resistance. Now after learning more over time, I am much more convinced the core problem is inflammation. There are a few reasons for this.
First, you can find a number of studies with subjects who are overweight but not insulin resistant, even for children. You can even find studies of subjects who are obese and have low fasting insulin levels.
Second, you can look at the general failure of the low-carb diet to influence outcomes in the long run. You can cut carbs and this will reduce insulin levels. It may also reduce inflammation levels, but the effect may be temporary. There are still zero studies showing that low-carb is effective for weight loss in the long-run (18 months or more).
Third, the simpler theory of inflammation being behind weight gain explains more. For example, a study last year showed that chemicals in plastics led to weight gain in children. Though they referred to this as "endocrine disrupters", you could just as easy say that these toxic chemicals led to inflammation.
Fourth, you can look at studies linking food allergy and weight gain. In the opposite way, if people avoid food they are allergic to, they lose weight. I've written about this before.
Fifth, you can look at the growing connection between asthma and obesity. Asthma is an inflammatory response, which not surprisingly links to weight gain. This study links elevated CRP levels to both asthma and obesity.
I also believe that one of the main regulators of inflammation is the gut flora. Balancing the gut bacteria seems like the most logical place to start in reducing inflammation.
