Matt Metzgar

Good Guys

This article gives a perfect example of a nonzero activity.  The article describes how an elderly man, who always enjoyed woodworking as a hobby, uses his skills for a win-win situation.  Harrison Perry now makes a variety of wooden toys for kids at the local children's home.  Every two weeks, he loads up his truck with new handmade toys and delivers them to the waiting children.

The article mentions how when he and his helpers arrive at the home, the children say, "here come the good guys."  The situation is good for him and good for them - what else can you ask for?

Nonzero

Nonzero, a book by Robert Wright, might be the best book I've ever read.  It's not the best-written book, nor is it the most exciting page-to-page.  But the central idea of the book is so attractive, and so revolutionary for me that it has completely altered my worldview.  I first read the book a few years back, and it rings as true for me now as it does then.

Years ago, I took some time to meander in the world of philosophy - I had a good teacher for a summer class in philosophy in undergraduate, and I always meant to dig deeper into the field.  I read a fair number of books, and thought about the subject a great deal.  My first big break came when I found the writings of Ayn Rand.  Reading just a few of her books and articles, I realized that I actually had no personal philosophy at all - just a hodgepodge of cliches, traditions, and contradictory themes.

I became entranced by Rand's work.  She offered a full system of philosophy - it was a one-package deal with everything included.  Her work motivated me for some time until I became aware of serious flaws in her ideas (the subject of a future post).  Still, it needs to be said that Ayn Rand was truly a genius, and her work is better than 99% of the philosophical work out there.

I would try to describe the basic premise of Nonzero next, but I will leave that to former President Bill Clinton, who is also a fan of the book:

"There is an astonishing new book out, been out a few months, by a man named Robert Wright, called Nonzero - kind of a weird title unless you'rere familiar with game theory.  But in game theory, a zero-sum game is one where, in order for one person to win, somebody has to lose.  A non-zero-sum game is a game in which you can win and the person you're playing with can win, as well.  And the argument of the book is that, notwithstanding all the terrible things that happened in the 20th century - the abuses of science by the Nazis, the abuses of organization by the communists, all the things that continue to be done in the name of religious or political purity - essentially, as societies grow more and more connected, and more interdependent, one with the other, we are forced to find more and more non-zero-sum solutions.  That is, ways in which we can all win." - Speaking at the Mayflower Hotel, Washington, D.C., September 2000

To put it simply, nonzero is about both parties winning, about people engaging in activities they enjoy and others enjoying the product.  This blog, if all goes well, could be thought of as a win-win game: I enjoy writing it and readers (hopefully!) enjoy reading it.

Lowlife of the Year Nominee

It turns out that some enterprising folks in New York City have been turning a profit by selling fake Lance Armstrong wristbands.  A group of six has been charged, and a stock of over 80,000 additional fake wristbands were found.  About 55 million real Lance Armstrong wristbands have been sold, with the money going to services for cancer patients.   

Stealing is bad enough, but stealing from a charitable foundation?  How much worse can you get?  Maybe these cretins mugged handicapped people in their spare time.  I wonder if this scheme will seem like a good idea if one of them gets diagnosed with cancer later in life.  What goes around comes around...

Hard Times for the Big Easy

The damage to New Orleans and the coastal areas from Hurricane Katrina is horrific.  And unfortunately, this looks to be just the start of problems to come.  The contaminated water and food supply is a potential breeding ground for all sorts of disease and infection.

I visited New Orleans a few years ago for a conference.  The city didn't seem very rich economically, but it possessed a distinctive culture and identity - more than you can say for many other cities.  With time, the city will recover and rebuild.  Earlier today I went to redcross.org and made a small donation.  Every little bit helps, and the hurricane victims need all the help they can get right now.

The View From Inside

Even more evidence has surfaced about the inevitable bursting of the US housing bubble.  This piece describes how employees of home building companies are now dumping their stocks at a frenzied pace.  Yet still, Wall Street analysts are pushing investors to buy housing stocks.  If these stocks are so good, why are the employees of the companies selling them?

All this is reminiscent of the last years of the dot-com bubble, when tech insiders were also selling their stock before the crash.  History is bound to repeat itself here.  What bothers me about the current media coverage is that very few reporters mention the cyclical nature of real estate prices.  The California market, for example, has gone through several boom and bust periods over the last 35 years.  Why do people think real estate won't crash again?

Here Comes the Sun

A number of studies have come out this year showing that sunlight exposure may reduce the risks of certain cancers.  In one study, researchers hypothesized that more sunlight exposure would increase the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma - instead they found out that sunlight exposure was correlated with a lower risk.

Why wouldn't sunlight be beneficial?  Humans have spent a large portion of their time in the sun for millions of years.  If anything, the current environment of being stuck in an office for most of the daylight hours would be a recipe for health problems.  No one is suggesting that people should burn themselves to a crisp, but regular, moderate sunlight exposure should certainly be part of a healthy lifestyle.

Are We In a Housing Bubble?

Yes, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.  If you want the whole story, read this very nice article on the housing bubble enveloping not only the US, but the entire globe.  Sure, there are some regions and US cities that do not have overvalued housing (like Canton, Ohio, where housing prices are actually falling).  But there is enough wealth tied up in housing in the major markets to qualify this a national housing bubble.

The only economists who say there is no housing bubble are the ones employed by the realtors, and others with a stake in the current shell game.  Don't let the puppet economists fool you with talk of an actual housing shortage, such as in this article.  In many boom markets, supply is actually outpacing real demand, as based on income and population growth.  In San Diego, housing prices have been going up while population has actually been decreasing. 

All the homebuilders and realtors are hoping to keep this hysteria up as long as they can.  When will the bubble burst?  Appreciation is already slowing and may have reached a peak in some markets.  Legitimate economists are predicting home prices will begin to fall in mid to late 2006, and that this will likely lead to a national recession.  I tend to agree; the new exotic financing programs, like interest-only loans and negative amortization, have pushed this bubble well beyond that of any previous one.  A large correction will be necessary - and this correction will probably be strong enough to push the economy into a recession.

Laying Down the Hammer

Loren Cordain continues to amaze me.  His latest effort is to expose the dietary cause of acne.  For decades, the dermatology community has stated that acne has no connection to diet.  Oh really?  I think most parents will tell you that if you feed a kid lots of chocolate and soda pop, he or she will break out.  I figured this one out when I was 16; how this has eluded dermatologists is beyond me.

In his latest paper, Cordain lays down the hammer, asking why there has not been any clinical studies on diet and acne since 1971.  1971!!!  What have these guys been studying for the last 30 years??  Cordain has also taken some trips around the globe, finding populations that show no signs of acne - and of course, these populations aren't consuming the high levels of sugar and carbohydrate that are present in the American diet.

For a teenager, I bet struggling with acne can be a real psychological burden.  Knowing that the situtation could easily be corrected by diet, but that dermatologists refuse to acknowledge or publicize this, is a very sad situation indeed.

Real Nutrition

I have studied diet and nutrition, fairly seriously, for a number of years now.  The confusion regarding the subject drove me to find the "ultimate answer", or at least as close as I'll get in this lifetime.  About 7 years ago, I read an article that put everything together.  The article, "Paleolithic Nutrition", was published in a research journal by Boyd Eaton back in 1985.

The basic premise is this: humans were hunter-gatherers (cavemen) for millions of years and subsisted on cerain foods.  Genetically, we are the same as our hunter-gatherer ancestors.  Whatever they ate is what we are "designed" to eat.  And these foods are ones that are available in nature: meat, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and nuts. 

Boyd Eaton later wrote a book called, "The Paleolithic Prescription" that further explained his ideas.  In the late 90s, Loren Cordain took the research to new heights and published his book, "The Paleo Diet"(www.thepaleodiet.com).

I have studied the work of these two and countless other researchers.  I even took a stab at writing my own book.  I sold a few copies over the internet, but never did much else with it.  I am in the process of dusting it off and converting it to a pdf file.  When I do, I will make it available for free download on this site.  I hope others can benefit from it.

Bring on the Kooks

Another school year, and once again evolution is under fire.  This article from USA Today talks about how yet another school district is trying to push "intelligent design" on its students.  It doesn't matter that intelligent design has no credible research behind it, that every scientific body in the country doesn't even acknowledge it - these school board members "know best" and want to force their views on students. 

How ridiculous is this?  Even the people who study intelligent design don't think this is a good idea.  Nevertheless, the school district is moving forward with putting it on the ballot this fall. 

The best part is that other parents in the district have filed a lawsuit against the school board, and most likely will be successful.  But who pays the legal bills to defend the school district?  You guessed it, all the local taxpayers, not just the idiots who started this whole mess.