Are We In a Housing Bubble?

Yes, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.  If you want the whole story, read this very nice article on the housing bubble enveloping not only the US, but the entire globe.  Sure, there are some regions and US cities that do not have overvalued housing (like Canton, Ohio, where housing prices are actually falling).  But there is enough wealth tied up in housing in the major markets to qualify this a national housing bubble.

The only economists who say there is no housing bubble are the ones employed by the realtors, and others with a stake in the current shell game.  Don't let the puppet economists fool you with talk of an actual housing shortage, such as in this article.  In many boom markets, supply is actually outpacing real demand, as based on income and population growth.  In San Diego, housing prices have been going up while population has actually been decreasing. 

All the homebuilders and realtors are hoping to keep this hysteria up as long as they can.  When will the bubble burst?  Appreciation is already slowing and may have reached a peak in some markets.  Legitimate economists are predicting home prices will begin to fall in mid to late 2006, and that this will likely lead to a national recession.  I tend to agree; the new exotic financing programs, like interest-only loans and negative amortization, have pushed this bubble well beyond that of any previous one.  A large correction will be necessary - and this correction will probably be strong enough to push the economy into a recession.